Séminaire avec Olivier Accominotti : "Currency speculation from Keynes to the carry trade" - 14h00 salle MC204

How profitable is foreign exchange speculation ? Standard macroeconomic and finance theory suggests that no profits can be expected from speculating in currencies. I present historical perspectives on this question and explore the risks, returns and nature of currency trading at different periods of history. In particular, I review the investment record of a famous foreign exchange speculator of the interwar period, John Maynard Keynes, and analyse how his experience as a trader influenced his views on financial markets. I also explore the long-run profitability of well-known speculation strategies such as the carry trade on currency markets.

Olivier ACCOMINOTTI est professeur associé au Département d’histoire économique de la London School of Economics and Political Science et membre du CEPR. Il est actuellement professeur invité à Sciences Po Toulouse.